Seo, Gwang Ho* Oh, Hyun-Ju** Jung, Kwang Young* Lee, Hwa Young* Kim, Soo Min*** Kim, Myung Won**** and Kang, Tae Soon*****†
Korea's coastal areas are experiencing amplified natural disasters due to the acceleration of climate change, resulting in loss of life and property damage. There is a growing demand for scientific disaster information to prepare for increased coastal inundation and erosion due to sea level rise and typhoon intensity under climate change. However, current coastal disaster assessments rely primarily on past climate data. In this study, we established a coastal disaster risk assessment system that considers future climate change conditions. The Korea Meteorological Administration's climate change scenario SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) 5-8.5 was selected based on data resolution, applicability, and ease of data collection. The study area was designated as the coast of Busan, South Korea, and a grid system with a 100-m interval was established in the coastal inland area, as stipulated by the Coast Management Act. Basic data for exposure and vulnerability indexes were obtained from authorized organizations such as the National Institute of Fisheries Science and the National Geographic Information Institute. Output data from the East Asia (25 km) climate change scenario was utilized as input for the numerical model to calculate the wave and tsunami components of the hazard index. For wind and rainfall, we used output data from the Korea Meteorological Administration's Korea (1 km) climate change scenario. For sea level rise, we used data from the National Institute of Fisheries Science's future projection of climate change response. The assessment applied formulas based on the IPCC AR5 assessment framework to calculate the results for each scenario. The results of this study are expected to provide information on coastal hazards considering future climate change and to help establish coastal hazard reduction measures.
140602-07.pdf
