| SSPs 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 서양금혼초(Hypochaeris radicata)의 개화 생물계절 및 적합 서식지 분포 예측 | |
| Predicting Flowering Phenology and Suitable Habitat Distribution Changes of Hypochaeris radicata under Shared Socio-economic Pathway Scenarios in South Korea | |
| 전상민* ․ 안난희** ․ 어진우* ․ 최순군* ․ 엽소진* ․ 김명현***† | |
| Jun, Sang-Min* An, Nan-Hee** Eo, Jinu* Choi, Soon-Kun* Yeop, So-Jin* and Kim, Myung-Hyun***† | |
| The objective of this study was to predict future changes in flowering phenology and suitable habitat distribution of Hypochaeris radicata. As the climatic environment shifts due to climate change, the phenology and habitat distribution of plants and animals within agricultural ecosystems are also affected. To assess and anticipate the influence of climate change on agricultural ecosystems and to establish adaptive strategies, it is imperative to accurately predict the phenology and habitat distribution of indicator species based on different climate change scenarios. In this context, this study aimed to ascertain the effects of climate change on agricultural ecosystems by predicting changes in the flowering phenology and habitat distribution of H. radicata based on shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our analysis revealed that the first, maximum, and last flowering dates for H. radicata are expected to shift earlier with climate change, more so under the SSP5-8.5 scenario than the SSP2-4.5 scenario. As climate change raises average temperatures, the growing degree days (GDD) will shorten, leading to earlier blooming periods. Furthermore, the suitable habitat area for H. radicata was 2.09% during the baseline period (1981 ~ 2010). In the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the suitable habitat area rose slightly to 2.28%, 2.51%, and 4.68% for 2011 ~ 2040, 2041 ~ 2070, and 2071 ~ 2100, respectively. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the suitable habitable area for H. radicata was projected to be 2.77%, 13.25%, and 23.61% for the same time periods. Being an alien and agro-ecological indicator species, changes in the flowering phenology and suitable habitat distribution of H. radicata could impact native flora and agriculture in South Korea. It is therefore crucial to persistently monitor and assess the ramifications of these shifts on Korean agricultural ecosystems due to climate change. | |
| Climate Change, Hypochaeris Radicata, Flowering Phenology, Habitat Distribution, SSP Scenario | |
 140602-04.pdf | |
| 2093-5919 | |
| 2586-2782 | |
| 2023-12 |
