기후변화 적응대책의 리스크 저감효과 분석 방법론 개발:생태계 부문의 산불 적응대책을 중심으로
Development of a methodology for analyzing the risk reduction effect of climate change adaptation plans: Forest fire adaptation plans in the ecosystem sector
김아라* ․ 송영일** ․ 박진한***†
Kim, Ara* ･ Song, Youngil** and Park, Jin-Han***†
Korea has sought to adapt to climate change by regularly establishing and implementing national climate change adaptation plans covering various sectors such as water management, agriculture, and the ecosystem. In order to implement adaptation policies efficiently, it is necessary to establish and implement appropriate policies to reduce future climate change risk, considering the risk reduction effect of different adaptation plans. However, a methodology for evaluating the risk reduction of different adaptation policies has not yet been developed. Therefore, to increase the effectiveness of adaptation plans, this study aims to establish a methodological basis for quantitatively assessing the risk reduction effect. This study targeted the ecosystem sector in “The Third National Climate Change Adaptation Plan” and reviewed adaptation policies by focusing on forest fires from among different climate risk categories. We set proxy variables based on the contents of adaptation plans and risk, collected relevant data, and conducted non-linear regression analysis to extract the forest fire damage function using adaptation policies. The risk reduction effect of plans responding to forest fires during droughts was found to be an average 4.15% decrease per 10% fire fuels reduction per hectare. Our methodology can be used in other sectors and can contribute to establishing and implementing effective adaptation policies by estimating future climate change risk reduction.
140601-12.pdf
