| 고해상도 SSP 시나리오 기반의 우리나라 미래 태양광 잠재 발전량 전망 | |
| Future projection of photovoltaic potential over South Korea based on high-resolution shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios | |
| 김진욱*† ․ 김도현** ․ 김태준** ․ 정주용*** ․ 변영화**** ․ 서명석***** | |
| Kim, Jin-Uk*† ･ Kim, Do-Hyun** ･ Kim, Tae-Jun** ･ Chung, Chu-Yong*** ･ Byun, Young-Hwa**** and Suh, Myoung-Seok***** | |
| The study predicts the future photovoltaic power generation potential (PVpot) changes over South Korea based on high-resolution climate change scenarios. According to the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), at the late 21st century, surface down-welling shortwave radiation, which has a major impact on PVpot, is expected to increase (by about +0.7 ∼ +3.5 W/m2) compared to the present-day. However, the increase or decrease of PVpot depends on the level of emissions in the future. In the low-emissions scenario, PVpot is expected to increase (by about +1.3%), while that in the high-emissions scenarios, PVpot isare expected to decrease (by about -0.7 ∼ -2.0%). As the temperature increases significantly, the temperature of the solar cell panels increase, and the performance ratio of PVpot decreases. This means that, even though the surface down-welling shortwave radiation increases, the increase in temperature may offset the positive impact on PVpot. Seasonally, PVpot is expected to increase (by about +2.3 ∼ +4.0%) in summer and decrease (by about -3.6 ∼ -7.1%) in winter. Overall, this study highlights the importance of considering the impact of climate change on solar energy. It also emphasizes the need to adopt low-emissions policies to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on renewable energy generation potential. | |
| Photovoltaics Potential, SSP Scenarios, South Korea, High-resolution | |
 1404-08.pdf | |
| 2093-5919 | |
| 2586-2782 | |
| 2023-08 |
