Time of Emergence in Asia based on the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble
이재희* ․ 성현민**† ․ 김지선* ․ 선민아* ․ 심성보** ․ 변영화***
Lee, Jae-Hee* ･ Sung, Hyun Min**† ･ Kim, Jisun* ･ Sun, Min-Ah* ･ Shim, Sungbo** and Byun, Young-Hwa***
This study investigates the Time of Emergence (ToE) over Asia based on the five sub-regions defined by the IPCC AR6 Atlas. Here, we investigate the ToE signal of temperature in 21 CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) models. Consistent with previous studies, signals occur in low-latitude regions (Southeast Asia; SEA) due to small natural variability. Particularly, the ToE signal occurs sooner in the Shared Socio-economy Pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 than in the SSP1-2.6 scenario. In addition, the ToE of daily minimum (maximum) temperature generally occurs sooner (later) than daily mean temperature in both scenarios. In addition to analyzing the trends of changes in climate factors for detection of climate change, information of timing and origin is essential. The ToE signal can provide related information, and the results of this study are expected to provide useful scientific information for responding to climate change on a regional scale.
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