| 확산 모형을 이용한 수송용 수소 수요 예측 및 CO2 저감 효과 분석 | |
| Forecasting Hydrogen Demand for Transportation Using the Diffusion Model and the CO2 Reduction Effect | |
| 이철용* , 정동호** , 신정우***† | |
| Lee, Chul-Yong* , Jeong, Dongho** , Shin, Jungwoo***† | |
| In order to realize a net-zero emissions society in 2050, transition to a hydrogen economy from a carbon economy is essential. In this study, using the diffusion model and fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) data, a hydrogen vehicle forecast for 2040 is created. The demand forecast results of this study and the government's target values are compared. In addition, using the estimated FCEV forecasts, we forecast the demand for hydrogen for transportation and analyze the effect on emissions of CO2, the core greenhouse gas. The estimation results show that about 2.5 million units will be supplied by 2040, which is 87.4% of the government target of 2.9 million units. To meet increasing demand by 2040, 886,262 tons of hydrogen will be needed, and a net 7,294,113 tons of CO2 will be reduced. However, it is necessary to maximize CO2 reduction by converting hydrogen production methods from the current gray hydrogen to green hydrogen and blue hydrogen. | |
| Forecasting, Hydrogen, Diffusion Model, CO2 Reduction Effect | |
 1205_01.pdf | |
| 2093-5919 | |
| 2586-2782 | |
| 2021-10 |
