| 파리협정 목표에 따른 한국의 온실가스 배출허용량과 총량제한 배출경로 연구 | |
| A Study on Korea’s Remaining GHG Emissions Allowance and Capped-Emissions Trajectories under the Paris Agreement Goal | |
| 임정민*† , 김동구** | |
| Lim, Jungmin*† and Kim, Dong Koo** | |
| Under the Paris Agreement, which is a bottom-up system, all parties voluntarily establish and implement greenhouse gas reduction goals and strategies such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and Long-term Low greenhouse gas Emission Development Strategies (LEDS). However, a significant gap is projected between the global total emissions from these bottom-up reduction targets and the global carbon budget in agreeance with the Paris Agreement targets. This study calculates Korea's top-down emission allowances based on the global carbon budget for the Paris Agreement 2 ℃ goal and derives the "Capped-Emissions Trajectories" to assess the appropriateness of Korea's bottom-up reduction efforts. To this end, we analyze Korea's emissions allowances based on international discussions on “Fair Sharing of Burden” and global and regional carbon budgets from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports. Specifically, we focus on the “Resource Sharing” approach and apply three criteria: i) emission shares, ii) equal emissions per capita, and iii) equal emissions intensity. Based on this, Korea's remaining emissions allowance is estimated to be 181-260 billion tons. In addition, for the scenario analysis of “Capped-Emissions Trajectories” in which the cumulative emissions do not exceed the emission allowance of 2 ℃, three pathway types are applied: linear, convex, and exponential function types. According to our analysis, net emission levels in 2030 and 2050 that comply with the Paris Agreement's 2 ℃ goal are estimated to be ± 10% of Korea's 2030 NDC and 2.13 ~ 3.8 billion tons, respectively. Thus, what is more important for achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement is to set an appropriate pathway so that cumulative emissions do not exceed the top-down national emissions allowance, rather than focusing on an emission target of any particular year or on a target year of achieving carbon neutrality. We expect that the findings of this study will serve as a reasonable reference for establishing Korea's mitigation pathways and evaluating national progress of implementation and compliance. | |
| Climate Change, Mitigation, Emissions Trajectories, Emissions Allowance, Carbon Budget, Paris Agreement | |
 1203-05.pdf | |
| 2093-5919 | |
| 2586-2782 | |
| 2021-06 |
