| SSP 시나리오에 따른 동아시아 극한기후 미래전망 | |
| Future Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation over East Asia under SSP Scenarios | |
| 심성보* , 김지선** , 성현민* , 이재희** , 권상훈** , 선민아** , 하종철*** , 변영화***† , 김연희**** | |
| Shim, Sungbo*, Kim, Jisun**, Sung, Hyun Min*, Lee, Jae-Hee**, Kwon, Sang-Hoon**, Sun, Min-Ah**, Ha, Jong-Chul***, Byun, Young-Hwa***†, and Kim, Yeon-Hee**** | |
| This study investigates the extreme temperature and precipitation indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). We calculate 14 indices representing extreme climate over East Asia. Here, we utilized the ensemble results of NIMS-KMA (National Institute of Meteorological Sciences and Korea Meteorological Administration) climate models (UKESM1 and K-ACE) for analysis of long-term variation in present-day (1995 ~ 2014) and future (2015 ~ 2100) periods. The spatial distributions of simulated daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily mean precipitation are comparable to those of ERA5 reanalysis data. Simulated extreme indices are well reproduced in the present-day period, although the NIMS-KMA climate models tend to underestimate annual minimum temperature extremes and overestimate extremes in precipitation intensity. In the future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), intensity and frequency of warm temperature extremes increased for the late 21st century, but magnitude and number of cold temperature extremes significantly decreased. Changes in extreme precipitation associated with a warming climate are becoming more intense and frequent in Southern China. But the changes in precipitation duration indices tend to have high uncertainty under SSP scenarios. | |
| SSP Scenarios, Extreme Climate, ETCCDI, CMIP6, NIMS-KMA | |
 1202-03.pdf | |
| 2093-5919 | |
| 2586-2782 | |
| 2021-04 |
